This year’s holiday spending looks set to see a slight loosening of purse strings, with a 4.5% rise predicted overall (Deloitte, 2025), driven by Gen Z. However, for the majority, budgets will remain unchanged. Key channel/timing outlooks include physical stores being forecast to command much of the gift discovery/research, ecommerce marketplaces dominating final purchasing, and the spending window continuing to stretch.

A balancing act of belt-tightening and decadence, 2025 is predicted to be characterised by ‘selective splurging’: curbing essentials to accommodate indulgence, particularly favourite festive experiences and traditions. It’s a sentiment connected to the experience-prioritising ‘Soft Savers’ in Internet Trend 101: Money Matters (extravagance with intention), and it will be reflected in a coupon surge as Christmas Day nears.

Predicted to generate $260bn in global online holiday sales for 2025 (Digital Commerce 360, 2025), the planning, gift-sourcing and budgeting capabilities of AI present a major consumer lure this Christmas, influencing in-store and online sales. Key opportunities include one-stop gifting assistants and instant order modification. 

For 45% of Britons, Christmas is deemed a stressful experience (10% find it “very stressful”, YouGov, 2024), and 76% of Americans reported facing emotional and financial pressure last year (Businesswire, 2024). An attitude likely to intensify for 2025, services easing festive stressors – such as pop-ups promoting self-care, providing financial advice or kidult-based coping – are poised to hit a high note.  

With consumers both buying second-hand to combat tariff-based pricing volatility and increasingly amenable to pre-loved gifts (47% of US consumers are likely to gift a resale item, contributing to a forecast $64bn in resale-related Holiday sales – Salesforce, 2025) recommerce concepts, including repair vouchers and refurb messaging proposing new isn’t always best are set to rise again for Christmas 2025.

Forty-six percent of consumers globally are “extremely concerned” about their personal finances (Capgemini, 2025), with increased activity on Amazon Prime Day pointing to a busy Black Friday. Watchlists, bid tech and price parameter-filtering ecommerce tools will be key to consumers and help brands side-step blanket discounting.

Festive gastronomic indulgence – and how it’s depicted in advertising or supported in brand content – will need to play out differently this year, due to rising use of weight-loss drugs (see Key Stats), compounded by growing numbers of people (including 60% of Americans) saying they’re seeking a culinarily healthier option for Christmas 2025 (Inmar, 2025). Edible artistry and positive indulgence provide new steers.

Consumers’ propensity to shop locally at Christmas (last year, 80% of Britons intended to buy at least some gifts locally, Aviva, 2024) is likely to increase as tariff-related price hikes heighten homegrown brands’ appeal. The best messaging will boost local businesses, smart store design will key into neighbourhood shopkeeping, and creative versions of civic commerce will present opportunities to support communities close to home.

Social media and livestream commerce will form bigger parts of the e-tail picture this Christmas – 23% of American consumers will shop from social media (Digital Commerce 360, 2025). Trend watching dashboards for hitting the hype at the right time, plus livestream tech for hosting shoppable broadcasts directly from retailers’ websites, are helping retailers maximise rising potential.